Overall Green Tropical Cyclone alert for FRANCISCO-13 in Japan, Guam from 16 Oct 2013 12:00 UTC to 20 Oct 2013 18:00 UTC

GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve alerts, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for FRANCISCO-13

in Japan, Guam

20 Oct 2013 18 UTC

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Meteorological source:

Impact Single TC

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone FRANCISCO-13 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	GDACS
Exposed countries	Japan, Guam
Exposed population	No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	269 km/h
Maximum storm surge	0.1 m (24 Oct 12:00 UTC)
Vulnerability	Medium (Japan)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
Current	212 km/h	0.1 m	n.a.	0.5
Overall	269 km/h	0.1 m	n.a.	0.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track) based on GDACS impact

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Wind

212 km/h Current Max.

Up to 31.2 million people in Category 1 strength or higher (see SSHS)

Impact Timeline

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Population in Tropical Storm or higher	Population in Cat 1. or higher	Countries
1	16 Oct 2013 00:00	195	No people	No people
2	16 Oct 2013 06:00	204	No people	No people
3	16 Oct 2013 12:00	212	No people	No people
4	16 Oct 2013 18:00	232	No people	No people	Guam
5	17 Oct 2013 00:00	232	No people	No people	Guam
6	17 Oct 2013 06:00	232	No people	No people	Guam
7	17 Oct 2013 12:00	232	No people	No people	Guam
8	17 Oct 2013 18:00	249	No people	No people	Guam
9	18 Oct 2013 00:00	249	No people	No people
10	18 Oct 2013 06:00	249	No people	No people
11	18 Oct 2013 12:00	249	No people	No people
12	18 Oct 2013 18:00	259	No people	No people
13	19 Oct 2013 00:00	259	No people	No people
14	19 Oct 2013 06:00	269	No people	No people
15	19 Oct 2013 12:00	269	No people	No people
16	19 Oct 2013 18:00	269	No people	No people	Japan
17	20 Oct 2013 00:00	259	No people	No people	Japan
18	20 Oct 2013 06:00	259	No people	No people	Japan
19	20 Oct 2013 12:00	232	No people	No people	Japan
20	20 Oct 2013 18:00	212	No people	31.2 million	Japan

Bulletin Timeline

N°	Date (UTC)	Category (SSHS)	Max winds (km/h)	Population in Cat.1 or higher	Population in Tropical Storm or higher	Location (lat, lon)	Countries
1	10/16/2013	Tropical depression	47	no people	no people	12.7, 145.2	Guam
2	10/16/2013 6:00:00 AM	Tropical depression	56	no people	no people	12.4, 144.4	Guam
3	10/16/2013 12:00:00 PM	Tropical storm	64	no people	no people	11.4, 143.3
4	10/16/2013 6:00:00 PM	Tropical storm	111	no people	no people	11.1, 143
5	10/17/2013	Category 1	130	no people	no people	11, 142.8
6	10/17/2013 6:00:00 AM	Category 1	138	no people	20000 people	11.4, 142.7	Guam
7	10/17/2013 12:00:00 PM	Category 2	158	no people	170000 people	12.1, 143	Guam
8	10/17/2013 6:00:00 PM	Category 3	204	no people	170000 people	13.2, 142.8	Guam
9	10/18/2013	Category 4	222	no people	no people	13.8, 142.3
10	10/18/2013 6:00:00 AM	Category 4	232	no people	no people	14.2, 142
11	10/18/2013 12:00:00 PM	Category 4	232	no people	no people	15.2, 141.8
12	10/18/2013 6:00:00 PM	Category 4	249	no people	no people	15.9, 141.1
13	10/19/2013	Category 4	249	no people	no people	16.2, 140.4
14	10/19/2013 6:00:00 AM	Category 5	259	no people	no people	16.7, 139.7
15	10/19/2013 12:00:00 PM	Category 5	259	no people	no people	17.1, 139.1
16	10/19/2013 6:00:00 PM	Category 5	259	no people	no people	17.4, 138.4
17	10/20/2013	Category 5	259	no people	no people	17.7, 137.7
18	10/20/2013 6:00:00 AM	Category 5	259	no people	no people	18.4, 137.3
19	10/20/2013 12:00:00 PM	Category 4	232	no people	no people	18.7, 136.9
20	10/20/2013 6:00:00 PM	Category 4	212	no people	no people	19.3, 136.6
20	10/21/2013 6:00:00 AM	Category 3	204	no people	no people	20.4, 136.1
20	10/21/2013 6:00:00 PM	Category 3	195	no people	no people	21.8, 135.4
20	10/22/2013 6:00:00 AM	Category 3	185	no people	no people	23, 134.3
20	10/22/2013 6:00:00 PM	Category 2	175	no people	no people	24, 132.9
20	10/23/2013 6:00:00 PM	Category 1	148	no people	no people	26.2, 131.3
20	10/24/2013 6:00:00 PM	Category 1	121	31.3 million people	62.4 million people	30.2, 133.4	Japan
20	10/25/2013 6:00:00 PM	Tropical storm	101	no people	no people	36.5, 140.9	Japan

Tropical disturbance/Weak low pressure area/Remnant low (Vmax < 51 km/h), see WMO

Actual track of the current bulletin

The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.

Download:

Exposed population - AoIs

Exposed population in the potential affected countries, provinces and populated places

Provinces

Country	Region Province
Japan	Chubu
Japan	Kanto

Populated places

Name	Region Province	Country	City class	Population
Tokyo	Tokyo	Japan	Capital	8.1 million people
Yokohama	Kanagawa	Japan	Major city	3.6 million people
Mito	Ibaraki	Japan	Major city	240000 people
Chiba	Chiba	Japan	Major city	920000 people
Kawasaki	Kanagawa	Japan	Major city	1.3 million people
Ito	Shizuoka	Japan	City	72000 people
Matsuzaki	Shizuoka	Japan	City	-
Noda	Chiba	Japan	City	120000 people
Tachikawa	Tokyo	Japan	City	170000 people
Isehara	Kanagawa	Japan	City	100000 people
Kisarazu	Chiba	Japan	City	120000 people
Atsugi	Kanagawa	Japan	City	230000 people
Chigasaki	Kanagawa	Japan	City	230000 people
Kamakura	Kanagawa	Japan	City	160000 people
Hiratsuka	Kanagawa	Japan	City	260000 people
Fujisawa	Kanagawa	Japan	City	390000 people
Yokosuka	Kanagawa	Japan	City	420000 people
Odawara	Kanagawa	Japan	City	200000 people
Mishima	Shizuoka	Japan	City	110000 people
Numazu	Shizuoka	Japan	City	200000 people
Atami	Shizuoka	Japan	City	40000 people
Hitachi	Ibaraki	Japan	City	180000 people
Kuji	Ibaraki	Japan	City	35000 people
Tsukuba	Ibaraki	Japan	City	180000 people
Omigawa	Chiba	Japan	City	25000 people
Narita	Chiba	Japan	City	100000 people
Tako	Chiba	Japan	City	-
Sakura	Chiba	Japan	City	180000 people
Abiko	Chiba	Japan	City	130000 people
Chofu	Tokyo	Japan	City	200000 people
Funabashi	Chiba	Japan	City	560000 people
Ichikawa	Chiba	Japan	City	460000 people
Matsudo	Chiba	Japan	City	460000 people
Kodaira	Tokyo	Japan	City	190000 people
Kamagaya	Chiba	Japan	City	110000 people

Critical infrastructure

Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

Airports

Name	IATA Code	Elevation (m)	Usage	Runway type	IFR	Runway Length (ft)
Oshima	OIM	40	Civ.	Paved	Yes	3900
Chiba-ken		19
Chofu		41	Civ.	Paved	No	3200
Tokyo Haneda International	HND	7	Civ.	Paved	Yes	9800
Katsner AAF		109	Civ.	Paved	No	1900
Atsugi	NJA	62	Mil.	Paved	Yes	7900
Kisarazu		3	Mil.	Paved	Yes	6000
Hyakuri		32	Mil.	Paved	Yes	8800
		26
Ryugasaki		2
Ryugasaki South		2
Shimofusa		30	Civ.	Paved	Yes	7300
Tokyo Narita International	NRT	42	Civ.	Paved	Yes	13100
Shimoshizu		30
Minami Daito	MMD	4	Civ.	Paved	Yes	4900
Kitadaito	KTD	24	Civ.	Paved	Yes	4900
Yokohama	YOK	unknown

Ports

Name	LOCODE	Country
Anegasaki	JPANE	Japan
Chiba	JPCHB	Japan
Goi	JPGOI	Japan
Hitachi	JPHTC	Japan
Kashima	JPKSM	Japan
Kawasaki	JPKWS	Japan
Kisarazu	JPKZU	Japan
Kurihama	JPKRH	Japan
Numazu	JPNUM	Japan
Ogasawara	JPOGA	Japan
Omaezaki	JPOMZ	Japan
Oshima	JPOSM	Japan
Shimoda	JPSMD	Japan
Tokyo	JPTYO	Japan
Yokohama	JPYOK	Japan
Yokosuka	JPYOS	Japan
Neghisi	JPNGI	Japan
Katunan Ko		Japan
Kita		Japan

Dams

Reservoir	Dam Name	River	Year
Jajanboike	Kozogawa	Kozogawa	1985
Kasumigaura	Kasumigaura-Kaihatsu	Tonegawa	1995
Tsukuiko	Shiroyama	Sagamigawa	1964
Miyagaseko	Miyagase	Nakatsugawa	2001
Yamakura	Yamakura	Yamakuragawa	1964
Kori	Kori	Korigawa	1972
Iizumishusuizeki	Iizumishusuizeki	Sakawagawa	1973
Matsukawako	Okuno	Itookawa	1989

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Rainfall

Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

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StormSurge

0.1 m

The maximum Storm surge height is 0.1m in Minami-daito, Japan. This height is estimated for 24 Oct 2013 12:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Locations affected by Storm surge (30 locations). Calculation based on advisory number 40 of 25 Oct 2013 18:00:00 UTC. (Simulation using 0.5 minute resolution)

Alert	Date (UTC)	Name	Country	Storm surge height (m)
	24 Oct 2013 12:00	Minami-daito	Japan	0.1
	24 Oct 2013 12:00	Minamimura	Japan	0.1
	24 Oct 2013 12:00	Kyuto	Japan	0.1
	24 Oct 2013 13:00	Kita-daito	Japan	0.1
	25 Oct 2013 08:00	Buzen	Japan	0.1
	25 Oct 2013 08:00	Higashiyoshitomi	Japan	0.1
	25 Oct 2013 08:00	Nakatsu	Japan	0.1
	25 Oct 2013 06:00	Imazu	Japan	0.1
	25 Oct 2013 16:00	Tsu	Japan	0.1
	25 Oct 2013 16:00	Rokken	Japan	0.1
	25 Oct 2013 16:00	Sohara	Japan	0.1
	25 Oct 2013 16:00	Karasu	Japan	0.1
	25 Oct 2013 16:00	Matsuzaka	Japan	0.1
	25 Oct 2013 09:00	Kanda	Japan	0.1
	25 Oct 2013 09:00	Shimonoseki	Japan	0.1
	25 Oct 2013 09:00	Tsunemi	Japan	0.1
	25 Oct 2013 09:00	Yukuhashi	Japan	0.1
	25 Oct 2013 09:00	Moji	Japan	0.1
	25 Oct 2013 09:00	Shiida	Japan	0.1
	25 Oct 2013 09:00	Ube	Japan	0.1
	25 Oct 2013 09:00	Tokonami	Japan	0.1
	25 Oct 2013 09:00	Kurosaki	Japan	0.1
	25 Oct 2013 09:00	Nagasu	Japan	0.1
	25 Oct 2013 09:00	Hashitsu	Japan	0.1
	25 Oct 2013 09:00	Takada	Japan	0.1
	25 Oct 2013 09:00	Bungo-Takada	Japan	0.1
	25 Oct 2013 09:00	Takedatsu	Japan	0.1
	25 Oct 2013 09:00	Taketazu	Japan	0.1
	25 Oct 2013 16:00	Saiku	Japan	0.1
	25 Oct 2013 16:00	Shiratsuka	Japan	0.1

Disclaimer
While we try everything to ensure accuracy, this information is purely indicative and should not be used for any decision making without alternate sources of information.
The JRC is not responsible for any damage or loss resulting from the use of the information presented on this website.
The designations employed and the presentation of material on the map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the European Union concerning the legal status of any country, territory or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.